Examining sources of Polish CIT-to-GDP growth over 2016-2021 using individual data of “Large” taxpayers . . . . .

Over 2016-2019 period Polish nominal CIT revenues – stagnating for previous four years – increased by nearly 50 percent (from 1,8 to 2,2 percent of GDP). Moreover, during the COVID-19 pandemic years its CIT revenues climbed even further, to 2,6 percent of GDP in 2021. Over 2021-2016 period, Polish CIT-to-GDP ratio improved by nearly 45 percent – the largest increase among the European Union Member States. This extraordinary performance is sometimes interpreted in terms of successful struggle against CIT avoidance, undertook by Polish fiscal authorities together with its initiatives to curb VAT frauds. The goal of this paper is to examine root causes of these increase in CIT revenues, by analyzing aggregate statistical data, as well as the data on “large” CIT taxpayers (over 50 million EUR revenues). In particular, it examines to what extent the improvement can be ascribed to the broad-based “macro-economic” factors, instead of the “micro-economic“ effects attributable to the handful of companies.[...]